The race for the Champions League spot(s)

After a 3-month break (seemed like 3-years), English football returns later tonight. Indeed, a welcome relief for all football fans from the severe lockdown in India. I have stepped out of my house just once in last 3 months! The top-3 spots seem a done-deal unless Leicester City has a spectacular collapse, which seems unlikely to me. Given this, the only real excitement in the home stretch is the race for the Champions league spot(s). The 5^th placed team is usually the first among losers as only the top-4 teams qualify for the Champions League. However, given the possibility of Manchester City getting banned from European competitions, there is a chance the 5^th placed team might make it to the Champions League qualifiers.

6 teams are in contention for this spot – The usual suspects – Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal & Tottenham, the dark horses – Wolves and the surprise package - Sheffield United. This blog assesses the relative chances of these teams.

Chelsea’s performances have been patchy all season and they must consider themselves lucky to be in the 4^th position. Chelsea had some momentum going into the break and while a break would be rued by Lampard, it has also given time for injured players like Kovacic, Pulisic and Loftus Cheek to recover. Positivity surrounding impending arrivals of Ziyech and Werner should further lift the mood at Chelsea. Lampard would also be hoping that these arrivals and other names being talked about (like Havertz) would charge up the likes of Tammy Abraham and Loftus Cheek. Chelsea’s fixture list doesn’t seem that daunting and I believe they will maintain their 4^th position, come end of the season.

Wolves have had a tremendous season standing in 6^th place despite a not so deep squad and a tiring Europa League campaign where they are still in contention. The 3-month gap has given a much-needed rest to Nuno Espirito Santo’s boys and the squad is returning fully fit. La Masia talent Adama Traore (7 assists) and Raul Jimenez (13 goals) have been sensational ably supported by Diego Jota and Pedro Neto. Wolves’ remaining fixtures are also quite favourable with just Chelsea and Arsenal the 2 relatively tougher games. I am betting on Wolves doing a couple of notches better than their 7^th placed finish last year and squeezing out a potential Champions League spot (5^th placed one).

Manchester United would have been disappointed with the enforced break given their strong performance just going into the break. Their newest signing Bruno Fernandes inspired this revival (winning player of the month award in February) and his performances would be the key if United hopes to clinch a Champions League spot. Marcus Rashford’s return should also boost Solskjaer’s side. However, with the March momentum no longer there, I feel United will likely fall short in their quest for the Champions League spot, a favourable final fixtures list notwithstanding.

If there is one man who would ben thanking the COVID-driven break, it’s Jose Mourinho. His Spurs side looked tired and hopeless going into the break. With Harry Kane and Heung-min Son out due to injuries, Spurs lacked firepower upfront. However, the fitness situation has improved drastically and Spurs would be raring to go in this last leg. I reckon Spurs need a super-human effort to make it to the Champions League spots – the positivity surrounding return of the injured players notwithstanding.

Arsenal has continued with its mediocre performances even after Arteta’s arrival, a few green shoots notwithstanding and find themselves in the 9^th spot, albeit with an extra game in hand. Aubameyang and Bern Leno have been stand-out performers and without them, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say that Arsenal would have been in a relegation battle. Youngsters Bukayo Saka and Martinelli have brought in palpable excitement but likely not enough for Arsenal to cross the Champions League spot line. Furthermore, the contract overhang with Aubameyang will be another distraction. A demanding fixture list in the final stretch – Man City, Liverpool, Spurs, Leicester, Wolves is a big hurdle to cross. Arteta has a long path ahead to instill his playing philosophy and restoring Arsenal to its past glory.  

Sheffield United have had a dream season punching much above their weight. All pundits expected Chris Wilder’s boys to be relegation contenders and here they are - in contention for a European Spot. Goalkeeper Dean Henderson has obviously been their most consistent performer but Sheffield have seen an all-round contribution from the team with notable performances from John Fleck, Lys Mousset, McBurnie and Oli Norwood. While a Champions League spot will remain elusive, Sheffield United have much to be proud of this season.