The race for the Champions League spot(s)

After a 3-month break (seemed like 3-years), English football returns later tonight. Indeed, a welcome relief for all football fans from the severe lockdown in India. I have stepped out of my house just once in last 3 months! The top-3 spots seem a done-deal unless Leicester City has a spectacular collapse, which seems unlikely to me. Given this, the only real excitement in the home stretch is the race for the Champions league spot(s). The 5^th placed team is usually the first among losers as only the top-4 teams qualify for the Champions League. However, given the possibility of Manchester City getting banned from European competitions, there is a chance the 5^th placed team might make it to the Champions League qualifiers.

6 teams are in contention for this spot – The usual suspects – Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal & Tottenham, the dark horses – Wolves and the surprise package - Sheffield United. This blog assesses the relative chances of these teams.

Chelsea’s performances have been patchy all season and they must consider themselves lucky to be in the 4^th position. Chelsea had some momentum going into the break and while a break would be rued by Lampard, it has also given time for injured players like Kovacic, Pulisic and Loftus Cheek to recover. Positivity surrounding impending arrivals of Ziyech and Werner should further lift the mood at Chelsea. Lampard would also be hoping that these arrivals and other names being talked about (like Havertz) would charge up the likes of Tammy Abraham and Loftus Cheek. Chelsea’s fixture list doesn’t seem that daunting and I believe they will maintain their 4^th position, come end of the season.

Wolves have had a tremendous season standing in 6^th place despite a not so deep squad and a tiring Europa League campaign where they are still in contention. The 3-month gap has given a much-needed rest to Nuno Espirito Santo’s boys and the squad is returning fully fit. La Masia talent Adama Traore (7 assists) and Raul Jimenez (13 goals) have been sensational ably supported by Diego Jota and Pedro Neto. Wolves’ remaining fixtures are also quite favourable with just Chelsea and Arsenal the 2 relatively tougher games. I am betting on Wolves doing a couple of notches better than their 7^th placed finish last year and squeezing out a potential Champions League spot (5^th placed one).

Manchester United would have been disappointed with the enforced break given their strong performance just going into the break. Their newest signing Bruno Fernandes inspired this revival (winning player of the month award in February) and his performances would be the key if United hopes to clinch a Champions League spot. Marcus Rashford’s return should also boost Solskjaer’s side. However, with the March momentum no longer there, I feel United will likely fall short in their quest for the Champions League spot, a favourable final fixtures list notwithstanding.

If there is one man who would ben thanking the COVID-driven break, it’s Jose Mourinho. His Spurs side looked tired and hopeless going into the break. With Harry Kane and Heung-min Son out due to injuries, Spurs lacked firepower upfront. However, the fitness situation has improved drastically and Spurs would be raring to go in this last leg. I reckon Spurs need a super-human effort to make it to the Champions League spots – the positivity surrounding return of the injured players notwithstanding.

Arsenal has continued with its mediocre performances even after Arteta’s arrival, a few green shoots notwithstanding and find themselves in the 9^th spot, albeit with an extra game in hand. Aubameyang and Bern Leno have been stand-out performers and without them, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say that Arsenal would have been in a relegation battle. Youngsters Bukayo Saka and Martinelli have brought in palpable excitement but likely not enough for Arsenal to cross the Champions League spot line. Furthermore, the contract overhang with Aubameyang will be another distraction. A demanding fixture list in the final stretch – Man City, Liverpool, Spurs, Leicester, Wolves is a big hurdle to cross. Arteta has a long path ahead to instill his playing philosophy and restoring Arsenal to its past glory.  

Sheffield United have had a dream season punching much above their weight. All pundits expected Chris Wilder’s boys to be relegation contenders and here they are - in contention for a European Spot. Goalkeeper Dean Henderson has obviously been their most consistent performer but Sheffield have seen an all-round contribution from the team with notable performances from John Fleck, Lys Mousset, McBurnie and Oli Norwood. While a Champions League spot will remain elusive, Sheffield United have much to be proud of this season.

Bundesliga Returns – The Home Stretch

Football fans have something to cheer at last. Live football is finally here after a 2-month gap with Bundesliga slated to resume on 16^th May. Bundesliga has the best in-stadium environment with the highest spectator attendance across the world and playing behind closed doors is not ideal. However, you can’t make an omelette without breaking some eggs and the prospect of live football even if only on TV is soothing. This post looks at the title contenders as the Bundesliga enters its home stretch.

Bayern Munich: The Favourites

With the last 7 titles under their belt, Bayern Munich remain favourites to make it 8 in a row even though they haven’t been as dominant this season as the previous years. Bayern endured one of the worst starts of this century this season losing 4 of its first 14 games. Their coach Nico Kovac was sacked and replaced by Hansi Flick. However, under Hansi Flick, Bayern has seen a major revival going unbeaten in the last 11 games and winning 10 of those; moving from 4^th position to top of the league. Bayern remain the team to beat scoring the highest number of goals (73) and conceding the least goals (26) in the league. Robert Lewandowski with a league-high 25 goals looks set for a hat-trick of golden boot awards. Serge Gnabry is finally doing justice to his potential having scored 11 goals and 9 assists. Thiago Alcantara has been his usual solid self while young left-back Alphonso Davies has been a revelation with his strong performances. While the forced break has definitely broken Bayern’s momentum, come 27^th June, it is difficult to imagine anyone else at the top of the charts.

Borussia Dortmund: The Challengers

Borussia Dortmund had frittered away a 6-point lead at the half-way mark last season finishing second just 2 points below Bayern. Having missed out last year by a whisker, Dortmund would be looking to finish a notch higher. While Captain Marco Reus remains the backbone of this exciting Dortmund team, the young talent at hand – Jadon Sancho (14 goals and 15 assists), Thorgan Hazard & Achraf Hakimi (8 goals and 20 assists) and Erling Haaland (9 goals and 1 assist in 8 games) is reminiscent of the successful Dortmund team of 2010-12. While the combination of the experienced Matts Hummels and youngster Dan Axel Zagadou at the centre of defence sounds enticing, an inconsistent defence remains Dortmund’s key weakness. Dortmund have been comprehensively beaten by Bayern this season but Lucien Favre’s side has a chance to take revenge and cut down that 4-point gap at the top when they host Bayern later this month. With Dortmund’s young brigade in demand all over Europe, the prospect of another team break-up looks inevitable and a title win this year would be the best farewell gift the likes of Sancho can give Die Schwarzgelben.

RB Leipzig – The Dark Horses

A point below Dortmund is the up and rising RB Leipzig. The last time Bayern didn’t win the Bundesliga, RB Leipzig were in the fourth tier of German football and now they are consistently challenging at the top with Champions League qualification largely considered a given. This is a reflection of the big leap RB Leipzig have made. RB Leipzig lost some momentum going into the forced break but they have been largely solid throughout the season. Timo Werner has continued in beast mode scoring 21 goals and giving 7 assists and this is likely his last season here given he is on the radar of most European biggies. Youngster Christopher Nkunku seems another exciting prospect from the RB stable with 4 goals and 12 assists this season. RB Leipzig has been especially stubborn in defence having conceded just 26 goals (lowest in the league) with 8 clean sheets. Defender Dayot Upamecano and goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi have been stand-out performers at the back. RB Leipzig have largely an easy run-in going into the home stretch with the home game against Dortmund, the one difficult game. Julian Nagelsmann’s side will fancy their chances of finishing at the top concluding a 11-year journey which began in 2009 with Red Bull buying the playing license of fifth-tier SSV Markranstadt.

Borussia Monchengladbach & Bayer Leverkusen – The Pretenders

Borussia Monchengladbach lost steam after a spectacular start to the season which saw them top the league for quite a few weeks. Marco Rose’s side also has had a memorable comeback win over Bayern Munich this season. Youngsters Marcus Thuram and Dennis Zakaria have had eye-catching performances and are already on the radar of big European clubs. Reaching the summit looks tough but Monchengladbach will be happy with a Champions League spot.

Bayer Leverkusen have come back strongly in the last dozen games of the season moving to 5^th position from a lowly 10th. They have been boosted by some solid performances by Moussa Diaby and Lucas Alario but the stand-out performer has been Kai Havertz who is already rumoured to be headed to Bayern Munich next season. Peter Bosz remains a man on a mission having a point to prove after losing his job at Dortmund 2 years back and a Champions League place would be considered a success.

Bengaluru FC's ISL journey

As I am a big fan of Bengaluru FC (BFC), this blog post is dedicated to the ups and downs in their 3-year ISL journey. In 2017, BFC exited the I- league and entered ISL and the last 3 years can be considered quite successful, the disappointing 2019-20 season notwithstanding.

A fabulous debut

BFC had signed a bunch of new players – Gurpreet, Paartalu, Dimas Delgado, Edu Garcia, and Miku and there were doubts on how well they would all gel together. However, those doubts were quickly dispelled. While the eventual loss to Chennaiyin FC in the final was heart-breaking and unfortunate, the Blues were outstanding throughout the league games. BFC blazed through the league games winning 13 of the 18 league games and finishing on 40 points, 8 ahead of the second-placed Chennaiyin FC. I was lucky to watch almost all the home games in the stadium with my beloved West Block Blues. The striker duo of captain Sunil Chhetri and Miku was unstoppable scoring 29 goals between themselves. The defense was also solid with BFC conceding the least goals (16) in the league stages and keeping the maximum clean sheets (8). Goalkeeper Gurpreet and defenders John Johnson, Subhashish Bose, Rahul Bheke, and Juanan were all outstanding. After the season they had, BFC definitely deserved to win the ISL in its debut season. However, it seemed just a bad day at the office for the Blues in the final. Subhashish (my favorite BFC player then) was sorely missed in the final against Chennaiyin, having picked up 2 yellow cards in 2 legs of the semi-final play-off against Pune City FC.

The redemption

John Johnson and Subhashish who had been defensive pillars had chosen to move on from the club.  Carles Cuadrat replaced Albert Roca as head coach and it was expected that BFC would carry on from where they had left off. Cuadrat had been the assistant coach under Roca earlier. The 2018-19 league performance however wasn’t quite as remarkable as the earlier season. BFC started well but lost steam towards the second half of the season. The Blues still ended up top of the table on goal difference with a few ISL records – an 11-match unbeaten run, 6 of which were consecutive wins. I was fortunate to have witnessed a part of these at the Fortress Kaanterava. After narrowly missing out on the earlier year, Gurpreet also snapped up the Golden Glove award. The 116th-minute goal by Rahul Bheke is permanently etched in my memory and more than made up for the disappointment in the final earlier year. The victory in the finals remains one of the happiest moments in my life.

A disappointing 2019-20 season

Even a die-hard fan like me must admit that the season gone by was disappointing. While I was obviously unhappy to see BFC lose to eventual champions ATK in the semi-final, it was probably what we deserved. BFC was not able to fill the big gap left by their departing Venezuelan striker, Miku. The Blues managed to score only 24 goals (22 in the 18 league games), with 15 goals through set-pieces. The poor performing frontline - Udanta, Ashique, Brown, and Agusto must take a lion’s share of the blame for the disappointing 2019-20 season. The season was salvaged somewhat by the solid defensive line. BFC conceded just 16 goals in the 20 games in the season. Gurpreet remains the best goalkeeper in the league, a few howlers he made notwithstanding (including in the away game against Mumbai City FC – the one I watched in the stadium). Youngster Suresh Wangjam was the find of the season and expect big things from him in the future. Contract extensions by Juanan and Erik Paartalu mean defensive solidity is also here to stay. However, the over-reliance on captain Chhetri in front of goal needs to end if the Blues hope to go a few notches higher in the upcoming season.

The Premier League relegation zone

Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Norwich are clubs currently in the relegation zone with Norwich looking almost a certainty for the drop. The clubs in relegation zone must be hoping that the 2019-20 season is voided and they get yet another shot at playing in the Premier League.

Since their promotion to the Premier League in 2015, Bournemouth have punched above their weight achieving respectable mid-table positions. However, this season has been challenging. Bournemouth and their long-standing manager Eddie Howe have seen much tougher days in the past but money at stake is the highest now. While Bournemouth has been unlucky with injuries, players like Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson have seen a big drop in form. Eddie Howe, who is currently the longest serving manager of a single club in English football, will have to bring in all his experience and man-management skills to save the Cherries from the drop.

Aston Villa were promoted last year after a 3-year stint in the Championship led by a 25-goal haul from Chelsea loanee Tammy Abraham. However, on current form they seem headed right back down. Villa’s defence has been the worst in the Premier League and the key reason for its presence in the relegation zone. Villa has been bad on all defensive parameters – most goals conceded (56), least clean sheets (4) and most shots faced (507). Jack Grealish, with 8 goals and 7 assists has been the only saving grace. Dean Smith needs a miracle to save Villa from the drop.  

Norwich City performances this season have flattered to deceive. Norwich has had some good individual performances – Teemu Pukki with 11 goals, playmaker Emi Buendia with 7 assists, youngster Todd Cantwell (6 goals, 2 assists) who is now being linked with bigger clubs and veteran goalkeeper Tim Krul (saved 3 penalties). However Daniel Farke, the club’s first foreign manager has been unable to bring it all together. The Canaries were unable to build on their early glorious win over Manchester City. Norwich lie bottom of the table, 6 points from safety and least number of goals scored. Only thing that lies between Norwich and relegation is Corona virus. 

Premier League season lookback

The forced break must be frustrating for Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp’s men were top of the table by 25 points and looking forward to their first Premier League trophy. They have played unbelievable football since the start of the season and fully deserve the trophy. They built on their Champions League win and looked unstoppable.

The team has benefited from stability with the rock-solid centre back Virgil Van Dijk , the attacking trio of Mohammed Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane and goalkeeper Allison Becker forming the core. The young guns, full-backs Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander Arnold have continued their dazzling performances. However, Liverpool will miss out on Arsenal’s invincibles record having lost to Watford.

After a solid early start, defending champions Manchester City lost their way. Their star playmaker Kevin de Bruyne has led the way with 16 assists. However, the injury to Aymeric Laporte was a big setback and hampered their performances significantly.

The 2016 champions Leicester City had an incredible start to the campaign including a record 9-0 win over Southampton before losing steam in the latter part of the season. Jamie Vardy has powered the Foxes with 19 goals including scoring in 8 consecutive games ably supported by youngsters Ayoze Perez and James Maddison.

Chelsea has had a mixed season so far and should consider themselves lucky to be in the Champions League spots. The transfer ban meant Chelsea manager Frank Lampard had to rely much more on young players Tammy Abraham, Callum Hudson Odoi, Fikayo Tomori and Mason Mount. Veteran Willian has had stand out performances.

In my next post, I will summarise the performances of PL teams in the relegation zone.